Victoria’s proposal to levy a per-kilometre charge on electric vehicles would substantially reduce uptake of clean cars and slow progress toward emissions targets, a researcher’s modelling has found.
Dr Jake Whitehead of the University of Queensland analysed the impact of the 2.5 cents per kilometre charge that Victoria announced for battery electric vehicles, with a 2 cents per kilometre charge proposed for plug-in hybrids. The modelling, carried out before the state announcement, indicates the levy could cut the share of EVs among new car sales from about 65% under existing federal policy settings to roughly 40% by 2050 if no offsetting incentives are introduced.
What the modelling shows
The UQ analysis used federal government projections as a baseline, which estimated EVs could comprise around 65% of new vehicle sales by 2050 given current policies. Applying the additional cost of a per-kilometre road user charge to that baseline drove a decline in projected adoption, with the modeller reporting a fall to roughly 40% in the EV share of new purchases by mid-century.
Scaled across Australia, Whitehead’s figures suggest the higher running cost could translate to about 4.9 million fewer electric vehicle sales over time compared with the baseline scenario. The modelling also drew attention to likely consequences for national transport emissions, noting that with an increasing vehicle fleet overall, a lower proportion of EVs would leave a larger share of kilometres driven powered by fossil fuels.
The analysis was released earlier than planned after state governments signalled or announced road user charges. The study has not yet completed peer review.
Why the charge matters for emissions and policy goals
Dr Whitehead describes a per-kilometre charge on clean vehicles as “completely incongruent” with state commitments to reach net zero emissions by 2050. The concern is that adding a running cost aimed at recouping road funding from EV drivers will blunt the relative economic appeal of electric cars compared with petrol and diesel models.
